Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Newtown AFC vs Guilsfield

Newtown AFC vs Guilsfield Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:30

Newtown AFC

PPG 1.87 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guilsfield

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.0%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.5%1-24.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-17.8%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-18.9%4+-24.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 21.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 58% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newtown AFC2.5

Guilsfield1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWTOWN AFC · PPG 1.87

GUILSFIELD · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newtown AFC (H) 57.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guilsfield (A) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newtown AFC face Guilsfield in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newtown AFC a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Guilsfield 21%, so Newtown AFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Newtown AFC and 1.1 for Guilsfield (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newtown AFC are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.15 for Guilsfield.

Newtown AFC vs Guilsfield Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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