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Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:45

Trethomas Bluebirds

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caerau (Ely)

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.7%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.8%1-110.6%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.8%3-14.4%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 34.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 47.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trethomas Bluebirds1.6

Caerau (Ely)1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS · PPG 1.40

CAERAU (ELY) · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trethomas Bluebirds (H) 41.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Caerau (Ely) (A) 34.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Trethomas Bluebirds face Caerau (Ely) in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trethomas Bluebirds a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Caerau (Ely) 34%, so Trethomas Bluebirds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Trethomas Bluebirds and 1.6 for Caerau (Ely) (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trethomas Bluebirds are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.41 for Caerau (Ely).

Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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