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Aberystwyth Town vs Treowen Stars Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:30

Aberystwyth Town

PPG 1.48 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Treowen Stars

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.3%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.8%1-16.3%1-24.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.8%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-110.4%4+-26.8%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% — — —

Draw 17.2% — — —

Away win 19.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 47.3% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 63% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberystwyth Town2.7

Treowen Stars1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERYSTWYTH TOWN · PPG 1.48

TREOWEN STARS · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aberystwyth Town (H) 62.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Treowen Stars (A) 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberystwyth Town face Treowen Stars in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberystwyth Town a 63% chance, the draw 17% and Treowen Stars 20%, so Aberystwyth Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Aberystwyth Town and 1.3 for Treowen Stars (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberystwyth Town are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.17 for Treowen Stars. This match finished 1-2.

Aberystwyth Town vs Treowen Stars Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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