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Rhyl vs Caersws Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:30

Rhyl

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caersws

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.7%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.8%1-111.2%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.4%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 28.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 48.7% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhyl1.7

Caersws1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RHYL · PPG 1.62

CAERSWS · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rhyl (H) 44.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Caersws (A) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhyl face Caersws in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhyl a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Caersws 28%, so Rhyl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rhyl and 1.3 for Caersws (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhyl are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.08 for Caersws.

Rhyl vs Caersws Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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