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Mold Alexandra vs Holyhead Hotspur Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:30

Mold Alexandra

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Holyhead Hotspur

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.5%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.3%1-110.1%1-27.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.1%3-15.7%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.2% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 55.1% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.1%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mold Alexandra1.8

Holyhead Hotspur1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLD ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.29

HOLYHEAD HOTSPUR · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mold Alexandra (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Holyhead Hotspur (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mold Alexandra face Holyhead Hotspur in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mold Alexandra a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Holyhead Hotspur 30%, so Mold Alexandra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mold Alexandra and 1.4 for Holyhead Hotspur (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mold Alexandra are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.30 for Holyhead Hotspur.

Mold Alexandra vs Holyhead Hotspur Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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