Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido
Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship
South · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 54% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%
Form & verdict
CARMARTHEN TOWN · PPG 1.66
AFAN LIDO · PPG 1.09
xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Carmarthen Town face Afan Lido in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carmarthen Town a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Afan Lido 24%, so Carmarthen Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Carmarthen Town and 1.3 for Afan Lido (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carmarthen Town are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.09 for Afan Lido.