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GBK vs Huima / Urho Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

GBK

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Huima / Urho

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.5%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.9%1-26.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.7%3-25.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.4%4+-24.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 44.4% 2.25 +20.6%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 24.0% 40.8% 2.45 -24.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 78.1% 1.28 -14.0%

Over 3.5 45.7% 59.9% 1.67 -23.7%

BTTS 64.3% 82.0% 1.22 -21.6%

Home O1.5 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Away O1.5 47.7% 59.9% 1.67 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GBK2.3

Huima / Urho1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GBK · PPG 1.71

HUIMA / URHO · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

GBK (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +20.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Huima / Urho (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

GBK face Huima / Urho in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GBK a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Huima / Urho 24%, so GBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for GBK and 1.5 for Huima / Urho (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GBK are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Huima / Urho. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 0-3.

GBK vs Huima / Urho Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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