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Vaajakoski vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Vaajakoski

PPG 1.29 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

VPS II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.3%0-22.8%0-32.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-02.1%1-15.1%1-26.2%1-35.0%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.4%2-15.7%2-26.9%2-35.6%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.8%3-14.3%3-25.2%3-34.2%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-14.1%4+-24.9%4+-34.0%4+-4+4.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 33.3% 3.00 +21.5%

Draw 20.8% 25.6% 3.90 -11.3%

Away win 38.7% 54.1% 1.85 -28.4%

Over 2.5 73.0% 82.0% 1.22 -10.9%

Over 3.5 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

BTTS 69.6% 82.0% 1.22 -15.1%

Home O1.5 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Away O1.5 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.6%

A 39% / xG 2.2-2.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.2%

#3 1–1 5.1%

#4 2–1 5.7%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaajakoski2.2

VPS II2.4

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VAAJAKOSKI · PPG 1.29

VPS II · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vaajakoski (H) 40.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +21.5%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.3%

VPS II (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaajakoski face VPS II in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaajakoski a 41% chance, the draw 21% and VPS II 39%, so Vaajakoski are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Vaajakoski and 2.4 for VPS II (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaajakoski are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for VPS II. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Vaajakoski vs VPS II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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