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JS Hercules vs SJK-juniorit Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

JS Hercules

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SJK-juniorit

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.1%0-21.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.0%1-13.6%1-23.3%1-32.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.2%2-15.9%2-25.4%2-33.3%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-16.5%3-25.9%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-112.2%4+-211.2%4+-36.8%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.9% 43.5% 2.30 +37.8%

Draw 16.8% 25.0% 4.00 -19.7%

Away win 23.3% 41.7% 2.40 -26.5%

Over 2.5 80.9% 83.3% 1.20 -2.9%

Over 3.5 59.0% 66.7% 1.50 -11.5%

BTTS 69.6% 82.0% 1.22 -15.1%

Home O1.5 78.3% 69.4% 1.44 +12.8%

Away O1.5 51.9% 66.7% 1.50 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 60% / xG 3.3-1.8 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.5%

#2 3–2 5.9%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 2–2✓ 5.4%

#5 4–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JS Hercules3.3

SJK-juniorit1.8

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JS HERCULES · PPG 1.43

SJK-JUNIORIT · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JS Hercules (H) 59.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +37.8%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.7%

SJK-juniorit (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

JS Hercules face SJK-juniorit in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JS Hercules a 60% chance, the draw 17% and SJK-juniorit 23%, so JS Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for JS Hercules and 1.8 for SJK-juniorit (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JS Hercules are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for SJK-juniorit. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 2-2.

JS Hercules vs SJK-juniorit Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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