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TP-47 vs Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

TP-47

PPG 0.86 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kraft

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.1%0-22.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-02.2%1-15.0%1-25.8%1-34.5%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.6%2-16.0%2-26.9%2-35.4%2-4+5.3%3 3-02.1%3-14.8%3-25.5%3-34.2%3-4+4.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-15.0%4+-25.7%4+-34.4%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 46.5% 2.15 -8.6%

Draw 20.5% 28.6% 3.50 -17.0%

Away win 37.0% 38.2% 2.62 -3.1%

Over 2.5 74.4% 78.1% 1.28 -4.8%

Over 3.5 54.1% 59.9% 1.67 -9.7%

BTTS 69.6% 82.0% 1.22 -15.1%

Home O1.5 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Away O1.5 65.0% 59.9% 1.67 +8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.6%

H 42% / xG 2.4-2.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 2–1✓ 6.0%

#3 1–2 5.8%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TP-472.4

Kraft2.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TP-47 · PPG 0.86

KRAFT · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TP-47 (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.0%

Kraft (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

TP-47 face Kraft in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TP-47 a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Kraft 37%, so TP-47 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for TP-47 and 2.3 for Kraft (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TP-47 are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Kraft. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-1.

TP-47 vs Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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