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JK Tabasalu vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

JK Tabasalu

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tallinna Kalev II

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.6%0-22.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.6%1-16.4%1-25.7%1-33.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.3%3-25.6%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.9%4+-26.2%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 27.6% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.2% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JK Tabasalu2.4

Tallinna Kalev II1.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JK TABASALU · PPG 1.67

TALLINNA KALEV II · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JK Tabasalu (H) 51.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tallinna Kalev II (A) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

JK Tabasalu face Tallinna Kalev II in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JK Tabasalu a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Tallinna Kalev II 28%, so JK Tabasalu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for JK Tabasalu and 1.8 for Tallinna Kalev II (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JK Tabasalu are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.64 for Tallinna Kalev II.

JK Tabasalu vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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