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Tallinna Kalev II vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Tallinna Kalev II

PPG 0.70 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.5%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.4%1-16.1%1-25.6%1-33.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.5%3-16.3%3-25.7%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.0%4+-26.4%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 32.3% 3.10 +60.3%

Draw 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -3.1%

Away win 26.4% 56.5% 1.77 -32.0%

Over 2.5 67.4% 85.5% 1.17 -21.1%

Over 3.5 47.3% 73.0% 1.37 -35.2%

BTTS 69.0% 85.5% 1.17 -19.3%

Home O1.5 62.9% 69.0% 1.45 -8.8%

Away O1.5 49.2% 77.5% 1.29 -36.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.0%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.1%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1✓ 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tallinna Kalev II2.5

Johvi Phoenix1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLINNA KALEV II · PPG 0.70

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tallinna Kalev II (H) 51.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +60.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.1%

Johvi Phoenix (A) 26.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tallinna Kalev II face Johvi Phoenix in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tallinna Kalev II a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Johvi Phoenix 26%, so Tallinna Kalev II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Tallinna Kalev II and 1.8 for Johvi Phoenix (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tallinna Kalev II are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.80 for Johvi Phoenix. This match finished 3-1.

Tallinna Kalev II vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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