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Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Levadia U19 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Levadia U19

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-20.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-00.6%1-11.4%1-21.6%1-31.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-01.3%2-13.0%2-23.4%2-32.6%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.8%3-14.2%3-24.8%3-33.7%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-114.0%4+-216.2%4+-312.5%4+-4+12.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% — — —

Draw 16.3% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 80.6% — — —

Over 3.5 69.0% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob70.3%

H 63% / xG 4.2-2.3 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 5.1%

#2 3–2 4.8%

#3 4–1 4.4%

#4 5–2 4.4%

#5 3–1 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parnu JK Vaprus U214.2

Levadia U192.3

COMBINED 6.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 · PPG 2.43

LEVADIA U19 · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.93 for Home, form 2.43 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (H) 62.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Levadia U19 (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 face Levadia U19 in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Levadia U19 21%, so Parnu JK Vaprus U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 and 2.3 for Levadia U19 (6.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.40 for Levadia U19.

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Levadia U19 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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