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Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:30

Tartu Kalev

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.8%0-20.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.6%1-12.9%1-22.6%1-31.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-02.9%2-15.3%2-24.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-16.3%3-25.7%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-114.4%4+-212.9%4+-37.8%4+-4+5.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% — — —

Draw 15.4% — — —

Away win 21.0% — — —

Over 2.5 82.1% — — —

Over 3.5 64.7% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 64% / xG 3.6-1.8 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.3%

#2 3–2 5.7%

#3 4–1 5.7%

#4 2–1 5.3%

#5 4–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Kalev3.6

Parnu JK Vaprus U211.8

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU KALEV · PPG 2.00

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.79 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Kalev (H) 63.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (A) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Kalev face Parnu JK Vaprus U21 in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Kalev a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Parnu JK Vaprus U21 21%, so Tartu Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Tartu Kalev and 1.8 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Kalev are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21.

Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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