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Legion vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Legion

PPG 0.90 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Narva U21

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-16.0%0-27.7%0-36.6%0-4+7.9%1 1-02.8%1-17.1%1-29.2%1-37.8%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.6%2-14.2%2-25.4%2-34.6%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.6%3-11.7%3-22.1%3-31.8%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 4.8% 21.00 +237.4%

Draw 21.2% 11.4% 8.80 +51.9%

Away win 55.2% 96.2% 1.04 -42.6%

Over 2.5 67.2% 90.9% 1.10 -26.1%

Over 3.5 44.0% 76.9% 1.30 -42.8%

BTTS 62.9% 54.3% 1.84 +15.7%

Home O1.5 32.4% — — —

Away O1.5 65.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob62.9%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 1–3✓ 7.8%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 0–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legion1.2

Narva U212.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGION · PPG 0.90

NARVA U21 · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.39 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Legion (H) 23.6%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +237.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +51.9%

Narva U21 (A) 55.2%

ODDS 1.04 · IMPLIED 96.2% EV -42.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Legion face Narva U21 in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legion a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Narva U21 55%, so Narva U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Legion and 2.6 for Narva U21 (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legion are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.00 for Narva U21. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Legion vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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