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Narva U21 vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Narva U21

PPG 2.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.36 for Home, form 2.64 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.2%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.2%1-22.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.8%2-17.1%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-18.0%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-116.2%4+-28.4%4+-32.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.9% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 8.6% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 32.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.8%

H 75% / xG 3.4-1.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 3–0 7.7%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 4–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narva U213.4

Johvi Phoenix1.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NARVA U21 · PPG 2.64

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.36 for Home, form 2.64 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Narva U21 (H) 74.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Johvi Phoenix (A) 8.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Narva U21 face Johvi Phoenix in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narva U21 a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Johvi Phoenix 9%, so Narva U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Narva U21 and 1.0 for Johvi Phoenix (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narva U21 are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.73 for Johvi Phoenix.

Narva U21 vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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