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Luunja vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00

Luunja

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.3%1-10.7%1-20.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-00.7%2-11.8%2-22.1%2-31.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-13.0%3-23.5%3-32.7%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-116.9%4+-219.8%4+-315.5%4+-4+15.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% — — —

Draw 15.0% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 84.4% — — —

Over 3.5 72.7% — — —

BTTS 78.6% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)5.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob78.6%

H 64% / xG 5.1-2.3 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–2 4.6%

#2 4–2 4.5%

#3 5–1 3.9%

#4 4–1 3.8%

#5 5–3 3.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luunja5.1

Parnu JK Vaprus U212.3

COMBINED 7.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.4% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LUUNJA · PPG 2.50

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.79 for Home, form 2.50 vs 1.15 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Luunja (H) 63.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Luunja face Parnu JK Vaprus U21 in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luunja a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Parnu JK Vaprus U21 21%, so Luunja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for Luunja and 2.3 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (7.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-2. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luunja are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.15 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21. This match finished 2-2.

Luunja vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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