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Legion vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Legion

PPG 0.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Luunja

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.3%0-25.9%0-35.4%0-4+7.3%1 1-02.2%1-16.0%1-28.3%1-37.6%1-4+10.2%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-25.9%2-35.4%2-4+7.2%3 3-00.7%3-12.0%3-22.8%3-32.5%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.0%4+-21.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 56.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 56% / xG 1.4-2.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 0–2 5.9%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legion1.4

Luunja2.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGION · PPG 0.82

LUUNJA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.34 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Legion (H) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Luunja (A) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Legion face Luunja in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legion a 24% chance, the draw 20% and Luunja 56%, so Luunja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Legion and 2.8 for Luunja (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legion are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.33 for Luunja.

Legion vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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