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Tartu Kalev vs Tulevik Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Tartu Kalev

PPG 1.90 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tulevik

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.5%0-21.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-02.5%1-14.5%1-24.1%1-32.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-03.8%2-16.8%2-26.0%2-33.6%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.7%3-16.7%3-26.0%3-33.6%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-110.4%4+-29.3%4+-35.5%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 54.6% 1.83 +7.2%

Draw 17.3% 22.2% 4.50 -13.3%

Away win 24.1% 34.7% 2.88 -18.4%

Over 2.5 74.4% 83.3% 1.20 -10.7%

Over 3.5 54.1% 73.5% 1.36 -26.4%

BTTS 69.6% 82.6% 1.21 -15.8%

Home O1.5 78.3% 72.5% 1.38 +8.1%

Away O1.5 48.2% 67.6% 1.48 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 59% / xG 3.0-1.8 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.8%

#2 3–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 6.0%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Kalev3.0

Tulevik1.8

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU KALEV · PPG 1.90

TULEVIK · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Kalev (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +7.2%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -13.3%

Tulevik (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Kalev face Tulevik in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Kalev a 59% chance, the draw 17% and Tulevik 24%, so Tartu Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Tartu Kalev and 1.8 for Tulevik (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Kalev are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.50 for Tulevik. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 4-2.

Tartu Kalev vs Tulevik Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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