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Levadia U19 vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Levadia U19

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

JK Tabasalu

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.4%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.6%1-14.5%1-22.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-114.6%4+-29.1%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Draw 15.9% 19.0% 5.25 -9.9%

Away win 20.1% 17.9% 5.60 +7.5%

Over 2.5 73.0% 85.5% 1.17 -14.6%

Over 3.5 52.7% 65.4% 1.53 -19.4%

BTTS 64.3% 76.9% 1.30 -16.4%

Home O1.5 78.3% 85.5% 1.17 -8.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 40.2% 2.49 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.3%

H 64% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 3–0✓ 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia U193.2

JK Tabasalu1.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA U19 · PPG 1.80

JK TABASALU · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 1.80 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Levadia U19 (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -15.0%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -9.9%

JK Tabasalu (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia U19 face JK Tabasalu in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia U19 a 64% chance, the draw 16% and JK Tabasalu 20%, so Levadia U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Levadia U19 and 1.2 for JK Tabasalu (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia U19 are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for JK Tabasalu. This match finished 3-0.

Levadia U19 vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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