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Växjö Norra vs Staffanstorp United Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Växjö Norra

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Staffanstorp United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.6%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.5%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 59.5% 1.68 -16.3%

Draw 23.8% 25.6% 3.90 -4.3%

Away win 26.4% 25.0% 4.00 +3.4%

Over 2.5 59.5% 65.4% 1.53 -9.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 43.5% 2.30 -16.1%

BTTS 54.5% 66.7% 1.50 -18.3%

Home O1.5 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Away O1.5 34.7% 38.5% 2.60 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Växjö Norra1.9

Staffanstorp United1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄXJÖ NORRA · PPG 1.83

STAFFANSTORP UNITED · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Växjö Norra (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -16.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.3%

Staffanstorp United (A) 26.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Växjö Norra face Staffanstorp United in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Växjö Norra a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Staffanstorp United 26%, so Växjö Norra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Växjö Norra and 1.1 for Staffanstorp United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Växjö Norra are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Staffanstorp United.

Växjö Norra vs Staffanstorp United Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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