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Karlshamn vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Karlshamn

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-114.1%0-210.6%0-35.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.5%2-15.2%2-23.9%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.0%3-11.5%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 28.2% 3.55 -1.8%

Draw 27.1% 28.2% 3.55 -2.3%

Away win 45.6% 57.5% 1.74 -20.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 67.1% 1.49 -25.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 45.5% 2.20 -22.1%

BTTS 53.1% 69.0% 1.45 -23.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 14.1%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlshamn0.9

IFK Trelleborg1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.50

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Karlshamn (H) 27.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.3%

IFK Trelleborg (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlshamn face IFK Trelleborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlshamn a 27% chance, the draw 27% and IFK Trelleborg 46%, so IFK Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Karlshamn and 1.5 for IFK Trelleborg (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlshamn are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.14 for IFK Trelleborg.

Karlshamn vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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