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Linero vs Räppe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

Linero

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Räppe

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.8%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.7%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-18.4%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 61.0% 1.64 -7.5%

Draw 21.1% 24.4% 4.10 -8.1%

Away win 22.5% 24.4% 4.10 -4.7%

Over 2.5 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Over 3.5 41.1% 47.6% 2.10 -13.7%

BTTS 54.5% 69.4% 1.44 -21.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Away O1.5 26.2% 40.8% 2.45 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 56% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linero2.4

Räppe0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LINERO · PPG 1.88

RÄPPE · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.50 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Linero (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -7.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.1%

Räppe (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linero face Räppe in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linero a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Räppe 23%, so Linero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Linero and 0.9 for Räppe (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linero are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.86 for Räppe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Linero vs Räppe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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