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Österlen vs Oskarshamns AIK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Österlen

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oskarshamns AIK

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.9%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.0%1-110.8%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 34.7% 2.88 +22.1%

Draw 23.7% 28.2% 3.55 -9.5%

Away win 33.9% 47.6% 2.10 -28.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 63.7% 1.57 -5.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 42.0% 2.38 -12.4%

BTTS 61.6% 69.0% 1.45 -10.7%

Home O1.5 45.5% 46.5% 2.15 -2.2%

Away O1.5 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Österlen1.6

Oskarshamns AIK1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ÖSTERLEN · PPG 1.50

OSKARSHAMNS AIK · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Österlen (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +22.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.5%

Oskarshamns AIK (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Österlen face Oskarshamns AIK in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Österlen a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Oskarshamns AIK 34%, so Österlen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Österlen and 1.5 for Oskarshamns AIK (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Österlen are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.38 for Oskarshamns AIK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Österlen vs Oskarshamns AIK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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