Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Oskarshamns AIK vs Karlshamn

Oskarshamns AIK vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Oskarshamns AIK

PPG 2.29 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Karlshamn

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a clear edge.

+11.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.7%1-15.7%1-22.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.8%2-18.3%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.6%3-18.1%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.4%4+-112.2%4+-25.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 67.6% 1.48 -1.4%

Draw 16.6% 23.8% 4.20 -18.2%

Away win 16.8% 19.0% 5.25 -7.1%

Over 2.5 67.2% 69.0% 1.45 -2.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 46.5% 2.15 -5.4%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 78.3% 70.4% 1.42 +11.2%

Away O1.5 20.4% 33.9% 2.95 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 67% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oskarshamns AIK2.9

Karlshamn0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OSKARSHAMNS AIK · PPG 2.29

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.07 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oskarshamns AIK (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -1.4%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -18.2%

Karlshamn (A) 16.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oskarshamns AIK face Karlshamn in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oskarshamns AIK a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Karlshamn 17%, so Oskarshamns AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Oskarshamns AIK and 0.8 for Karlshamn (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oskarshamns AIK are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.57 for Karlshamn. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 5-0.

Oskarshamns AIK vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions