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IFK Trelleborg vs Växjö Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 2.14 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Växjö Norra

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.7%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.4%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 48.8% 2.05 +8.8%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 22.4% 33.3% 3.00 -19.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 42.0% 2.38 -23.1%

BTTS 53.1% 69.0% 1.45 -23.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Away O1.5 26.7% 45.5% 2.20 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Trelleborg1.7

Växjö Norra0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.14

VÄXJÖ NORRA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Trelleborg (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Växjö Norra (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Trelleborg face Växjö Norra in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Trelleborg a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Växjö Norra 22%, so IFK Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for IFK Trelleborg and 0.9 for Växjö Norra (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Trelleborg are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.50 for Växjö Norra. This match finished 4-0.

IFK Trelleborg vs Växjö Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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