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Lilla Torg vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Lilla Torg

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Karlskrona

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.8%0-28.5%0-34.9%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.7%2-16.3%2-25.5%2-33.2%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.4%3-12.4%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 22.2% 4.50 +39.1%

Draw 24.0% 24.4% 4.10 -1.0%

Away win 45.1% 63.7% 1.57 -29.2%

Over 2.5 59.5% 67.6% 1.48 -11.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 45.5% 2.20 -19.7%

BTTS 60.3% 66.7% 1.50 -9.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

Away O1.5 47.7% 67.6% 1.48 -29.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.3%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lilla Torg1.1

Karlskrona1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLA TORG · PPG 1.50

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.60 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lilla Torg (H) 30.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +39.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.0%

Karlskrona (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lilla Torg face Karlskrona in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lilla Torg a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Karlskrona 45%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lilla Torg and 1.7 for Karlskrona (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lilla Torg are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.25 for Karlskrona. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Lilla Torg vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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