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Staffanstorp United vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Staffanstorp United

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lilla Torg

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.6%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.1%1-19.5%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.7%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 51.3% 1.95 +5.5%

Draw 22.5% 27.0% 3.70 -10.1%

Away win 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 41.7% 43.5% 2.30 -4.1%

BTTS 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Home O1.5 60.5% 59.9% 1.67 +1.0%

Away O1.5 35.4% 45.5% 2.20 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.8%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staffanstorp United2.1

Lilla Torg1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STAFFANSTORP UNITED · PPG 1.29

LILLA TORG · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Staffanstorp United (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +5.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.1%

Lilla Torg (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Staffanstorp United face Lilla Torg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staffanstorp United a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Lilla Torg 23%, so Staffanstorp United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Staffanstorp United and 1.2 for Lilla Torg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staffanstorp United are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.86 for Lilla Torg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Staffanstorp United vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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