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Torns vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Torns

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Berga

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.5%0-27.0%0-35.0%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.0%1-18.7%1-29.4%1-36.8%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.4%2-34.6%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-22.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 32.8% 3.05 -6.9%

Draw 21.8% 29.9% 3.35 -16.2%

Away win 49.1% 50.8% 1.97 -3.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 64.9% 1.54 -1.3%

Over 3.5 42.6% 42.6% 2.35 +0.1%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 56.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.6%

A 49% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torns1.3

Berga2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TORNS · PPG 1.29

BERGA · PPG 1.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Torns (H) 29.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -6.9%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -16.2%

Berga (A) 49.1%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torns face Berga in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torns a 29% chance, the draw 22% and Berga 49%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Torns and 2.2 for Berga (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torns are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.38 for Berga. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Torns vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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