Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Paju Citizen vs Seongnam FC

Paju Citizen vs Seongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 10:30

Paju Citizen

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seongnam FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-114.2%0-27.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.5%2-16.4%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.1%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 31.3% 3.20 +30.2%

Draw 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Away win 30.2% 45.5% 2.20 -33.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.3% 25.0% 4.00 -8.9%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away O1.5 27.8% 41.7% 2.40 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.7%

H 41% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0 13.6%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paju Citizen1.0

Seongnam FC1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 0.70

SEONGNAM FC · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Paju Citizen (H) 40.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +30.2%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Seongnam FC (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paju Citizen face Seongnam FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paju Citizen a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Seongnam FC 30%, so Paju Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Paju Citizen and 1.0 for Seongnam FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paju Citizen are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.00 for Seongnam FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.0%.

Paju Citizen vs Seongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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