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Seongnam FC vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Seongnam FC

PPG 1.22 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cheonan City

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-112.0%0-26.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.1%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.3%2-17.5%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 48.8% 2.05 -12.7%

Draw 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

Away win 29.4% 29.9% 3.35 -0.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.3% 1.95 -10.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

BTTS 50.7% 57.8% 1.73 -12.3%

Home O1.5 32.1% 47.6% 2.10 -32.6%

Away O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.7%

H 43% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seongnam FC1.1

Cheonan City1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SEONGNAM FC · PPG 1.22

CHEONAN CITY · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Seongnam FC (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -12.7%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.4%

Cheonan City (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seongnam FC face Cheonan City in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seongnam FC a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Cheonan City 29%, so Seongnam FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Seongnam FC and 1.0 for Cheonan City (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seongnam FC are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.89 for Cheonan City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Seongnam FC vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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