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Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:30

Gimhae City

PPG 0.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gyeongnam FC

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-112.1%0-210.1%0-35.6%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.7%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.3%2-15.5%2-24.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% 30.8% 3.25 -12.8%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 51.2% 47.6% 2.10 +7.5%

Over 2.5 53.3% 50.0% 2.00 +6.6%

Over 3.5 31.2% 28.2% 3.55 +10.8%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away O1.5 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob53.1%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimhae City1.0

Gyeongnam FC1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMHAE CITY · PPG 0.12

GYEONGNAM FC · PPG 0.89

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.72 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimhae City (H) 24.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Gyeongnam FC (A) 51.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimhae City face Gyeongnam FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimhae City a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Gyeongnam FC 51%, so Gyeongnam FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimhae City and 1.7 for Gyeongnam FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimhae City are averaging 0.12 points per game versus 0.89 for Gyeongnam FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.8%.

Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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