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Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 10:30

Daegu FC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Asan Mugunghwa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.3%0-24.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.0%1-110.8%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.3%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 54.6% 1.83 -14.5%

Draw 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -7.0%

Away win 29.1% 26.7% 3.75 +5.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 62.5% 1.60 -4.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 40.0% 2.50 -8.8%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Away O1.5 42.6% 38.2% 2.62 +11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daegu FC1.7

Asan Mugunghwa1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEGU FC · PPG 1.90

ASAN MUGUNGHWA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Daegu FC (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.0%

Asan Mugunghwa (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daegu FC face Asan Mugunghwa in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daegu FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Asan Mugunghwa 29%, so Daegu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Daegu FC and 1.4 for Asan Mugunghwa (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daegu FC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.00 for Asan Mugunghwa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.6%.

Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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