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Busan I Park vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:30

Busan I Park

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hwaseong

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.4%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.3%1-111.1%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 44.4% 2.25 -20.8%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -13.1%

Away win 41.1% 34.7% 2.88 +18.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 55.6% 1.80 +8.9%

Over 3.5 37.6% 33.9% 2.95 +10.9%

BTTS 61.6% 62.5% 1.60 -1.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Away O1.5 47.3% 40.8% 2.45 +15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Busan I Park1.5

Hwaseong1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BUSAN I PARK · PPG 2.00

HWASEONG · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Busan I Park (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.1%

Hwaseong (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Busan I Park face Hwaseong in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Busan I Park a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Hwaseong 41%, so Hwaseong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Busan I Park and 1.5 for Hwaseong (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Busan I Park are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Hwaseong. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Busan I Park vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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