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Asan Mugunghwa vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 11:00

Asan Mugunghwa

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ansan Greeners

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.4%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-110.3%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.4%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.8%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 66.7% 1.50 -15.3%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 21.1% 17.9% 5.60 +10.9%

Over 2.5 55.8% 57.1% 1.75 -2.4%

Over 3.5 33.9% 34.5% 2.90 -1.7%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Away O1.5 27.8% 25.3% 3.95 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asan Mugunghwa1.9

Ansan Greeners1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ASAN MUGUNGHWA · PPG 1.80

ANSAN GREENERS · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Asan Mugunghwa (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Ansan Greeners (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asan Mugunghwa face Ansan Greeners in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asan Mugunghwa a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Ansan Greeners 21%, so Asan Mugunghwa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.0 for Ansan Greeners (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asan Mugunghwa are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.43 for Ansan Greeners. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.0%.

Asan Mugunghwa vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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