Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Paju Citizen vs Suwon City FC

Paju Citizen vs Suwon City FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Paju Citizen

PPG 0.78 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Suwon City FC

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.7%0-28.2%0-35.2%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.3%2-16.1%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 23.1% 4.33 +12.7%

Draw 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -7.8%

Away win 49.1% 59.5% 1.68 -17.5%

Over 2.5 60.4% 58.8% 1.70 +2.7%

Over 3.5 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

BTTS 61.1% 60.6% 1.65 +0.8%

Home O1.5 32.5% 32.3% 3.10 +0.8%

Away O1.5 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.1%

A 49% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1✓ 8.7%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paju Citizen1.2

Suwon City FC1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 0.78

SUWON CITY FC · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.70 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Paju Citizen (H) 28.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +12.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.8%

Suwon City FC (A) 49.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paju Citizen face Suwon City FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paju Citizen a 28% chance, the draw 23% and Suwon City FC 49%, so Suwon City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Paju Citizen and 1.9 for Suwon City FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paju Citizen are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.70 for Suwon City FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Paju Citizen vs Suwon City FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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