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Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 10:30

Gimpo Citizen

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cheonan City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.1%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.2%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 26.8% 25.0% 4.00 +4.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 52.4% 1.91 +2.6%

Over 3.5 31.8% 30.3% 3.30 +4.9%

BTTS 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Home O1.5 45.1% 52.4% 1.91 -13.9%

Away O1.5 34.7% 30.3% 3.30 +14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimpo Citizen1.5

Cheonan City1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMPO CITIZEN · PPG 1.17

CHEONAN CITY · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimpo Citizen (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -11.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Cheonan City (A) 26.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimpo Citizen face Cheonan City in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimpo Citizen a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Cheonan City 27%, so Gimpo Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gimpo Citizen and 1.1 for Cheonan City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimpo Citizen are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.80 for Cheonan City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.2%.

Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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