Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Cheongju vs Jeonnam Dragons

Cheongju vs Jeonnam Dragons Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:30

Cheongju

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jeonnam Dragons

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.5%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.9%1-111.7%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 40.8% 2.45 +11.7%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 29.7% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 52.6% 1.90 +13.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

BTTS 60.6% 59.9% 1.67 +1.2%

Home O1.5 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Away O1.5 39.1% 41.7% 2.40 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheongju1.5

Jeonnam Dragons1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEONGJU · PPG 0.80

JEONNAM DRAGONS · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cheongju (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +11.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Jeonnam Dragons (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheongju face Jeonnam Dragons in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheongju a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Jeonnam Dragons 30%, so Cheongju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cheongju and 1.3 for Jeonnam Dragons (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheongju are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.58 for Jeonnam Dragons. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Cheongju vs Jeonnam Dragons Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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