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First Vienna vs FC Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 08:30

First Vienna

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Liefering

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.4%0-24.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.1%1-110.6%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.2%3-14.8%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 44.4% 2.25 -2.8%

Draw 23.7% 29.9% 3.35 -12.4%

Away win 33.1% 34.5% 2.90 -4.0%

Over 2.5 59.9% 59.9% 1.67 +0.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 38.2% 2.62 -4.4%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Away O1.5 47.3% 43.5% 2.30 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

First Vienna1.7

FC Liefering1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRST VIENNA · PPG 1.71

FC LIEFERING · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

First Vienna (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.4%

FC Liefering (A) 33.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

First Vienna face FC Liefering in Austria - 2. Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives First Vienna a 43% chance, the draw 24% and FC Liefering 33%, so First Vienna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for First Vienna and 1.5 for FC Liefering (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, First Vienna are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.64 for FC Liefering. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.8%.

First Vienna vs FC Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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