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FC Liefering vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:30

FC Liefering

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

WSPG Wels

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.2%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.9%1-17.8%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-17.8%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-18.5%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 51.3% 1.95 +22.9%

Draw 20.2% 27.0% 3.70 -15.2%

Away win 16.8% 30.3% 3.30 -26.7%

Over 2.5 63.8% 65.4% 1.53 -2.4%

Over 3.5 42.9% 43.5% 2.30 -1.3%

BTTS 56.6% 69.0% 1.45 -17.9%

Home O1.5 62.4% 58.8% 1.70 +6.1%

Away O1.5 29.5% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.6%

H 63% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Liefering2.4

WSPG Wels1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC LIEFERING · PPG 1.82

WSPG WELS · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Liefering (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +22.9%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.2%

WSPG Wels (A) 16.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Liefering face WSPG Wels in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Liefering a 63% chance, the draw 20% and WSPG Wels 17%, so FC Liefering are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FC Liefering and 1.0 for WSPG Wels (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Liefering are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.09 for WSPG Wels. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.1%.

FC Liefering vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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