Today / Austria - 2. Liga / Sturm Graz II vs Floridsdorfer AC

Sturm Graz II vs Floridsdorfer AC Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Sturm Graz II

PPG 0.83 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Floridsdorfer AC

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-115.3%0-213.7%0-38.1%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.3%1-29.2%1-35.5%1-4+3.7%2 2-01.9%2-13.4%2-23.1%2-31.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 22.2% 4.50 -20.0%

Draw 24.4% 27.0% 3.70 -5.8%

Away win 60.9% 59.5% 1.68 +2.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.8% 1.93 -2.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

BTTS 48.4% 54.6% 1.83 -11.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 26.7% 3.75 +20.4%

Away O1.5 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.4%

A 61% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 0–2 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz II0.7

Floridsdorfer AC1.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ II · PPG 0.83

FLORIDSDORFER AC · PPG 1.82

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.12 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz II (H) 14.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -20.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.8%

Floridsdorfer AC (A) 60.9%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz II face Floridsdorfer AC in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz II a 15% chance, the draw 24% and Floridsdorfer AC 61%, so Floridsdorfer AC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sturm Graz II and 1.8 for Floridsdorfer AC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz II are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.82 for Floridsdorfer AC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 4-2.

Sturm Graz II vs Floridsdorfer AC Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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