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Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs SV Kapfenberg Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

PPG 1.13 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SV Kapfenberg

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.3%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.3%1-19.7%1-27.4%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-15.4%3-24.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.8%4+-22.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 51.3% 1.95 -7.4%

Draw 22.9% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Away win 29.6% 29.9% 3.35 -0.5%

Over 2.5 63.8% 66.7% 1.50 -4.3%

Over 3.5 42.0% 45.5% 2.20 -7.6%

BTTS 64.3% 70.4% 1.42 -8.7%

Home O1.5 54.1% 59.9% 1.67 -9.7%

Away O1.5 48.2% 44.4% 2.25 +8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz1.8

SV Kapfenberg1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHWARZ-WEISS BREGENZ · PPG 1.13

SV KAPFENBERG · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

SV Kapfenberg (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz face SV Kapfenberg in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz a 48% chance, the draw 23% and SV Kapfenberg 30%, so Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and 1.5 for SV Kapfenberg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.09 for SV Kapfenberg. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs SV Kapfenberg Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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