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Sturm Graz II vs Admira Wacker Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:30

Sturm Graz II

PPG 1.19 · HOME

UPCOMING

Admira Wacker

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.6%0-26.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.8%1-111.0%1-28.8%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-17.9%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.8%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 23.8% 4.20 +64.2%

Draw 25.1% 27.8% 3.60 -5.8%

Away win 35.8% 57.1% 1.75 -37.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 59.9% 1.67 -10.3%

Over 3.5 33.7% 38.2% 2.62 -11.7%

BTTS 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 34.7% 2.88 +29.9%

Away O1.5 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.5%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz II1.4

Admira Wacker1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ II · PPG 1.19

ADMIRA WACKER · PPG 1.23

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz II (H) 39.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +64.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.8%

Admira Wacker (A) 35.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz II face Admira Wacker in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz II a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Admira Wacker 36%, so Sturm Graz II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sturm Graz II and 1.6 for Admira Wacker (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz II are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.23 for Admira Wacker. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.9%.

Sturm Graz II vs Admira Wacker Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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