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Blacktown City vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

UNSW

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.8%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.0%1-110.5%1-26.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 47.6% 2.10 +5.6%

Draw 23.1% 29.0% 3.45 -12.2%

Away win 26.6% 33.9% 2.95 -12.9%

Over 2.5 61.9% 62.5% 1.60 -1.0%

Over 3.5 38.6% 40.8% 2.45 -5.4%

BTTS 61.6% 67.6% 1.48 -8.8%

Home O1.5 50.2% 54.6% 1.83 -8.1%

Away O1.5 39.4% 45.5% 2.20 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 136 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.8

UNSW1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 1.08

UNSW · PPG 0.46

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.2%

UNSW (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face UNSW in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 50% chance, the draw 23% and UNSW 27%, so Blacktown City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Blacktown City and 1.3 for UNSW (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.46 for UNSW.

Blacktown City vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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