Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs SD Raiders

APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 06:00

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

SD Raiders

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.4%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.3%1-16.5%1-23.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-18.0%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-110.5%4+-26.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 64.5% 1.55 -8.9%

Draw 19.8% 24.4% 4.10 -11.3%

Away win 21.4% 20.8% 4.80 +1.6%

Over 2.5 67.4% 69.0% 1.45 -2.3%

Over 3.5 47.0% 47.6% 2.10 -1.3%

BTTS 63.3% 67.6% 1.48 -6.3%

Home O1.5 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.3%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt Tigers2.7

SD Raiders1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT TIGERS · PPG 2.62

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.42

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 2.62 vs 1.42 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -8.9%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.3%

SD Raiders (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt Tigers face SD Raiders in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers a 59% chance, the draw 20% and SD Raiders 21%, so APIA Leichhardt Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.2 for SD Raiders (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt Tigers are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.42 for SD Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL New South Wales Predictions