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Sydney Olympic vs Sydney United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sydney United

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-113.1%0-212.3%0-37.7%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.5%1-110.3%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.2%2-14.1%2-23.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.6%3-11.1%3-21.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.4% 19.6% 5.10 -9.8%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 60.0% 63.7% 1.57 -5.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.4% 3.40 +2.7%

Away O1.5 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.1%

A 60% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.3%

#2 1–1 10.3%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic0.8

Sydney United1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.67

SYDNEY UNITED · PPG 1.86

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.09 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 16.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -9.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Sydney United (A) 60.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face Sydney United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 16% chance, the draw 24% and Sydney United 60%, so Sydney United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sydney Olympic and 1.9 for Sydney United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.86 for Sydney United. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.7%.

Sydney Olympic vs Sydney United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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