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Rockdale City Suns vs Wollongong Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 05:00

Rockdale City Suns

PPG 1.31 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wollongong Wolves

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.4%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.1%1-111.8%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 63.7% 1.57 -23.5%

Draw 24.6% 26.0% 3.85 -3.2%

Away win 26.7% 20.0% 5.00 +20.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 63.7% 1.57 -15.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 41.7% 2.40 -23.7%

BTTS 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Home O1.5 47.2% 65.4% 1.53 -27.8%

Away O1.5 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 136 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rockdale City Suns1.6

Wollongong Wolves1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCKDALE CITY SUNS · PPG 1.31

WOLLONGONG WOLVES · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rockdale City Suns (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -23.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.2%

Wollongong Wolves (A) 26.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rockdale City Suns face Wollongong Wolves in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rockdale City Suns a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Wollongong Wolves 27%, so Rockdale City Suns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rockdale City Suns and 1.1 for Wollongong Wolves (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rockdale City Suns are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.21 for Wollongong Wolves. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.9%.

Rockdale City Suns vs Wollongong Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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