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Manly United vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:00

Manly United

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

NWS Spirit

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+27.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.0%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.7%1-112.4%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.6%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 41.7% 2.40 +27.4%

Draw 24.8% 29.0% 3.45 -8.7%

Away win 22.1% 39.2% 2.55 -26.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 48.1% 58.8% 1.70 -18.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 42.6% 2.35 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly United1.4

NWS Spirit0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UNITED · PPG 2.00

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Manly United (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +27.4%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.7%

NWS Spirit (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly United face NWS Spirit in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly United a 53% chance, the draw 25% and NWS Spirit 22%, so Manly United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Manly United and 0.8 for NWS Spirit (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly United are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.77 for NWS Spirit. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Manly United vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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