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Marconi Stallions vs Sutherland Sharks Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 05:00

Marconi Stallions

PPG 2.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sutherland Sharks

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-17.1%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.5%1-111.6%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.2%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 63.7% 1.57 -20.1%

Draw 24.8% 25.3% 3.95 -1.2%

Away win 24.3% 21.1% 4.75 +9.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 58.8% 1.70 -14.8%

Over 3.5 29.6% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 47.2% 62.5% 1.60 -24.5%

Away O1.5 21.6% 29.9% 3.35 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 136 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi Stallions1.6

Sutherland Sharks0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI STALLIONS · PPG 2.23

SUTHERLAND SHARKS · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Marconi Stallions (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -20.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.2%

Sutherland Sharks (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi Stallions face Sutherland Sharks in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi Stallions a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Sutherland Sharks 24%, so Marconi Stallions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marconi Stallions and 0.9 for Sutherland Sharks (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi Stallions are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.64 for Sutherland Sharks. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Marconi Stallions vs Sutherland Sharks Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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