Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Weston Bears vs Adamstown Rosebuds

Weston Bears vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 10:00

Weston Bears

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adamstown Rosebuds

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.5%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.0%1-18.1%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.9%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.3%3-17.1%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-17.0%4+-24.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.4% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears2.3

Adamstown Rosebuds1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.40

ADAMSTOWN ROSEBUDS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adamstown Rosebuds (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Adamstown Rosebuds in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Adamstown Rosebuds 24%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Weston Bears and 1.3 for Adamstown Rosebuds (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Adamstown Rosebuds.

Weston Bears vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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